Highlights

• • Estimated away win probability 67.7% vs market-implied 58.5%
• • Minimum odds for value on away = 1.476; current price 1.709 > required

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge based on Sanchez's supplied career record
• + Current market price provides a sizable margin above break-even odds

Cons

• - No direct data provided for the opponent (form, injuries, H2H) in the research
• - Small sample and limited recent-match detail increase uncertainty

Details

We base our estimate on the cited career record for Ana Sofia Sanchez (10-21 across 31 matches = 32.3% win rate). With no data provided for Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah in the research, the simplest and most defensible model is a head-to-head complement: Sanchez win probability = 10/31 (0.323), implying the opponent win probability = 21/31 (0.677). The market decimals are Home 2.19 (implied 45.6%) and Away 1.709 (implied 58.5%). Our estimated away probability (0.677) exceeds the market-implied away probability (0.585), producing positive expected value. Calculated EV at the current away decimal (1.709): EV = 0.677419 * 1.709 - 1 = +0.157 (15.7% ROI). The minimum decimal odds required for positive EV on the away side given our probability is 1.476, and the market price 1.709 comfortably exceeds that. We acknowledge increased uncertainty because only Sanchez's profile is supplied and opponent form/fitness/H2H are unknown, so we set risk to medium despite the apparent value.

Key factors

• • Ana Sofia Sanchez career record 10-21 over 31 matches -> ~32.3% win rate
• • Recent recorded matches in research show losses, indicating poor short-term form
• • Market-implied away probability (58.5%) is well below our estimated away probability (67.7%)