Ana Vilcek vs Gabriela Skrabalova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: the favorite is priced too short at 1.23 relative to our conservative 78% win estimate, and the underdog would need much longer odds to be attractive.
Highlights
- • Market implied: Skrabalova ~81.3%, Vilcek ~26.3%
- • Our conservative estimate: Skrabalova 78% → required min odds 1.282; current 1.23 is negative EV
Pros
- + Clear decision due to large discrepancy between required and offered odds
- + Conservative approach reduces chance of overbetting on thin information
Cons
- - High uncertainty because no match-specific data (form, surface, injuries) is available
- - If inside information exists or our probability is too conservative, value could be misjudged
Details
We have no external research available, so we apply a conservative, market-aware assessment. Market-implied probabilities are: Ana Vilcek (home) 1/3.8 = 26.3% and Gabriela Skrabalova (away) 1/1.23 = 81.3%. Conservatively we estimate Skrabalova's true win probability at 78% (0.78) given the strong market favorite status but allowing a small margin for market margin/overround and unknown info. At that estimate the minimum fair decimal price for Skrabalova is 1.282; the current price of 1.23 is too short and yields negative expected value (EV = 0.78*1.23 - 1 = -0.041, about -4.1% ROI). For Vilcek the fair price would be 4.545 based on our 22% estimate; current 3.8 is also too short and yields about -16.4% ROI. Neither side offers positive EV at the quoted odds, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No independent research available; using conservative priors
- • Market implies a heavy favorite (Skrabalova) at 81.3% implied probability
- • We estimate Skrabalova win probability slightly lower at 78%, still below the implied market edge
- • Neither side meets the value threshold at the quoted decimal prices