Highlights

• • Alejandro: stronger overall record and more clay match experience
• • Current odds (1.704) are above our fair odds threshold (1.613), creating positive EV

Pros

• + Positive expected value at widely available market price
• + Clearer recent form and larger sample size favor Alejandro

Cons

• - Limited detailed injury/conditioning data in provided sources
• - Modest edge only (~5.6% ROI); variance and bookmaker margin still present

Details

We view Alejandro Manzanera Pertusa as the value side. He has a larger sample (54 matches) and a stronger win-loss record (31-23) compared with Anas Mazdrashki (12-14 across 26 matches). Both players are comfortable on clay, but Alejandro’s recent results include a win on clay in late July and overall greater match volume and win rate on the surface, while Anas shows recent losses in clay events. The market prices Alejandro at 1.704 (implied ~58.7%), but after accounting for the bookmaker margin and form/experience edge we estimate his true win probability materially above the market-implied probability. Using our estimated true probability of 62.0%, the current price (1.704) yields a positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.056 per unit). We recommend betting the away player at current widely available prices because the required fair odds (≈1.613) are lower than current available odds, providing a modest edge.

Key factors

• • Alejandro has a larger match sample and better overall win-loss record (31-23 vs 12-14)
• • Both players play clay, but Alejandro has recent clay win and more consistent results on the surface
• • Market margin lifts implied probability; after normalization Alejandro’s market-implied win probability still appears below our estimate