Anastasia Abbagnato vs Sara Dols
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market heavily favors the home player at 1.331, but the supplied data shows no clear edge; available price offers negative expected value so we advise no bet.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability ~75% vs our estimate 56%
- • Required odds for value (1.786) are well above current 1.331
Pros
- + Home is the market favorite which reflects available liquidity and clearly defined price
- + If additional unlisted factors (injury to opponent, surface advantage) existed they could justify the price
Cons
- - Research shows similar records and recent losses for both players, providing no clear edge
- - Current odds are too short — negative expected value at the quoted 1.331
Details
We estimate that Anastasia Abbagnato's true win probability is materially lower than the market-implied probability behind the 1.331 price. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the supplied data (multiple recent losses), with no clear surface or head-to-head edge evident from the research. The market is pricing Abbagnato at ~75% implied probability (1/1.331), which we view as overstated given the comparable profiles and lack of distinguishing factors. To generate positive expected value we would need substantially longer odds (around 1.79); at the current 1.331 there is no value, so we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and limited distinguishing form in the provided data
- • Market-implied probability for the home player (~75%) appears inflated relative to available performance signals
- • No head-to-head, clear surface advantage, or recent winning momentum for Abbagnato is present in the research