Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~67.4% (1.483); our estimate: 62.0%
• • Required fair odds for value: ≥1.613; current 1.483 is short of that

Pros

• + Home team includes an experienced veteran (Pridankina), which is a doubles-level asset
• + Both teams have surface familiarity, limiting surprises

Cons

• - Research set shows broadly similar recent records across all four players — no clear edge
• - Current price for the favourite does not offer positive expected value

Details

We find no positive value on the home favourite at the quoted 1.483. The market-implied probability for the home pairing is ~67.4% (1/1.483). Our assessment gives the home duo a ~62.0% chance to win based on the available research: Elena Pridankina's extensive experience and the pairing's surface familiarity are positives, but the recent form data across both teams is thin and largely similar, with no clear advantage large enough to justify the market price. With an estimated true probability of 62.0% the fair decimal price is ~1.613; the current 1.483 price yields a negative expectation. Given the small information set, lack of clear H2H or doubles-specific metrics and similar recent results across all four players, we cannot justify taking the favourite at current odds.

Key factors

• • Pridankina's large career experience relative to others
• • Overall recent form appears similar across both pairings in provided data
• • Market-implied probability (67.4%) exceeds our estimated true probability (62%)