Highlights

• • Market implies ~70.2% for home; we estimate ~64%
• • Current price is too short to offer positive expected value

Pros

• + Home side includes a very experienced player which supports favoritism
• + Surface exposure for these players includes hard courts per the profiles

Cons

• - Recent results in the provided data show losses and limited form clarity
• - Market price is short relative to our conservative probability estimate, producing negative EV

Details

The market price of 1.424 implies a 70.2% win probability for Detiuc/Pridankina (1/1.424). We estimate the true win probability at ~64% based on the provided player profiles: Pridankina brings substantial career experience but recent results shown in the dataset are losses; the other three players show limited and inconsistent recent records. There is insufficient evidence of strong, current form or clear matchup advantage for the home pair to justify the market-implied 70% win-rate. Using our 64% probability, the fair decimal odds would be ~1.563, which is higher than the available 1.424, so the current price offers negative expected value. Given the noisy and sparse form data and no clear reasons to materially raise our probability estimate, we avoid a bet here.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (70.2%) exceeds our estimate (64%)
• • Pridankina's long career suggests experience but recent results in provided data are losses
• • Opponents show limited/ inconsistent recent records in the provided dataset, increasing uncertainty