Anastasia Gasanova vs Veronika Erjavec

Highlights

• • Market implies Erjavec has ~78% chance, which seems high given similar records and hard‑court activity
• • Gasanova fair odds estimated ~3.03; current 3.86 offers meaningful edge

Pros

• + Significant overlay on the home moneyline vs our conservative probability
• + No injury information or surface disadvantage in the provided research to justify the favorite's large edge

Cons

• - Limited data and no head‑to‑head/contextual matchup details increase variance
• - Both players have poor overall records this season, raising upset potential and execution volatility

Details

We view the market as overpricing Veronika Erjavec at 1.279 (implied ~78.2%) given the available data. Both players have nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on hard courts in the provided research, so a near three-to-one market edge for Erjavec is not supported by form or surface history alone. Conservatively we estimate Anastasia Gasanova's true win probability at 33.0% (implying fair odds ~3.03). At the current decimal price of 3.86 this creates positive expected value (EV = 0.33*3.86 - 1 ≈ +0.274). There are no injury flags or clear matchup data in the research to justify Erjavec being a ~78% pick, so we recommend the home underdog where value exists.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) in the provided data
• • Recent matches listed are on hard courts for both players, removing a clear surface edge
• • Bookmakers price Erjavec at ~78% implied probability which appears overstated given available form/information
• • No injuries or withdrawals noted in the provided research to justify large favorite status
• • Thin head-to-head/contextual data in research increases uncertainty but favors treating odds disparity as potential value