Highlights

• • Book market implies Mozgaleva ~14.8% but we estimate ~20%
• • Min fair price to justify a bet is 5.00; current 6.75 offers clear margin

Pros

• + Significant margin between our break-even odds (5.00) and the market price (6.75)
• + No research evidence (form, injuries, H2H) supporting the market's extreme favoritism

Cons

• - Small sample size and limited data on both players increases model uncertainty
• - If there are undisclosed injuries, withdrawals, or seeding/qualification differences not in the research, the market price may be correct

Details

We find value on Anastasia Mozgaleva as the 6.75-priced underdog. The market-implied probabilities are extreme (Olympe Lancelot ~91.7%, Mozgaleva ~14.8%) but the available data shows both players with nearly identical career records (Mozgaleva 10-22, Lancelot 10-21) and similar surface experience, with no injury or H2H information to justify a blowout probability. We estimate Mozgaleva's true win probability at 20%; at that probability the break-even decimal price is 5.00, well below the current 6.75, producing positive expected value. Calculation: implied Mozgaleva prob = 1/6.75 = 0.148; our estimated prob = 0.200; EV = 0.200 * 6.75 - 1 = 0.35 (35% ROI). We therefore recommend the home moneyline only because current prices materially exceed our min_required_decimal_odds.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and form (Mozgaleva 10-22, Lancelot 10-21)
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface advantage shown
• • Market price heavily favors Lancelot (1.09) without research-supported justification, creating mispricing