Highlights

• • Book prices imply Safta is under 50% to win (2.04 = ~49.0%)
• • Our conservative model places her at 51.0%, producing a small positive EV

Pros

• + Career winning record above 50% across many matches suggests reliability
• + Current odds slightly undervalue Safta versus our conservative probability

Cons

• - Recent match listing shows losses and limited recent data to confirm turnaround
• - Opponent information is not provided, increasing uncertainty and risk

Details

We estimate Anastasia Safta offers value at the current home price (2.04). The market-implied probability for Safta at 2.04 is ~49.0%, while her career win rate across 1066 matches is roughly 52.5%, and even accounting for a couple of recent losses the evidence supports a higher-than-implied chance here. The market also shows an overround (~8.5%), so the bookmaker margin inflates the away probability; after adjusting conservatively for form and experience we estimate Safta's true win probability at 51.0%, which yields a positive expected value at 2.04. Therefore we recommend the home side only because EV > 0 at the quoted odds. Odds used for EV calculations are the provided current decimal price (2.04).

Key factors

• • Career win rate around 52.5% over 1066 matches, indicating baseline competence
• • Recent listed results show a couple of losses but not a collapse in overall form
• • Market-implied probability (~49%) appears lower than our conservative true probability estimate (51%), creating value