Anastasia Zakharova vs Gaeul Jang

Highlights

• • Market implies Jang win ~8.33%; we estimate ~12%
• • Required odds for value (based on our estimate) are ~8.333; available price is 12.0

Pros

• + Large disconnect between market odds and estimates based on supplied player data
• + Both players' profiles in the research are similar, supporting a less lopsided true probability

Cons

• - Research is limited and may omit ranking, on-site fitness, or withdrawal information that justifies the market
• - Longshot volatility: even positive EV bets can lose in the short term

Details

We find clear value on the away moneyline (Gaeul Jang). The market prices Anastasia Zakharova at 1.03 (implied ~97.1%) and Jang at 12.0 (implied ~8.33%), but the provided research shows nearly identical career records (both 10-21) and similar recent form on comparable surfaces, with no injury or rotation information to justify a ~90+ percentage gap. Conservatively estimating Jang's true win probability at 12.0%, the fair price would be ~8.333 decimal. At the available 12.0 odds our expected return = 0.12 * 12.0 - 1 = +0.44 (44% ROI), so the away side is a positive EV play. We remain cautious because the market's extreme skew could reflect missing info not in the research (injury/withdrawal, ranking disparity, or local advantage), but based strictly on the supplied data this is a strong overlay.

Key factors

• • Both players show near-identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results in the supplied data
• • Market-implied probabilities (1.03 vs 12.0) are heavily skewed and inconsistent with provided profiles
• • No injury, head-to-head, or surface advantage information in the research to justify the large market gap
• • Surface exposure is similar (clay, hard) in the data, reducing a surface-based explanation for the line