Highlights

• • Market implies ~54% for each; we estimate ~59% for Brengle
• • Experience and surface adaptability favor Brengle over the less-proven Abbagnato

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current away price
• + Clear quality gap and greater consistency for Brengle

Cons

• - Limited recent-match detail in the available research increases uncertainty
• - If Abbagnato is in peak form or conditions heavily favor her, value could evaporate

Details

We view Madison Brengle as the value side. The market prices both players nearly even (1.87 vs 1.855) despite a large experience and career-quality gap: Brengle has a long, successful tour track record across surfaces while Anastasia Abbagnato has a short pro record (10-21) and limited wins. Recent results shown for both are thin, but Brengle's depth, adaptability to hard courts, and consistency at ITF/WTA level lead us to assign a substantially higher win probability than the market-implied ~54%. At the offered away price (1.855) our estimated win probability (~59%) produces positive expected value. We prefer Brengle because the book odds understate her chance relative to Abbagnato's demonstrated level and sample size.

Key factors

• • Brengle's extensive experience and higher career level compared with Abbagnato
• • Abbagnato's short career record (10-21) and limited high-level success
• • Market prices nearly even despite the experience/quality gap, creating value on Brengle