Anastasia Abbagnato vs Madison Brengle
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Madison Brengle: at decimal 1.364 we estimate a ~6.4% positive EV driven by her vast experience and stronger track record versus Abbagnato.
Highlights
- • Brengle a clear favorite by experience and career results
- • Current odds (1.364) beat our fair-price estimate (~1.282)
Pros
- + Significant expertise gap and proven win history at higher levels
- + Market price provides a measurable, if modest, EV
Cons
- - Limited specific matchup and surface detail in the provided research
- - EV margin is modest and sensitive to small changes in true probability
Details
We view Madison Brengle as a clear qualitative favorite based on a large experience and match-volume advantage (1066 career matches vs 31 for Abbagnato) and a substantially stronger career win profile. The market prices Brengle at decimal 1.364 (implied ~73.3%). Given Abbagnato's limited pro record (10-21) and inconsistent recent results, we assign Brengle a higher true win probability (0.78). At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.282; the current price of 1.364 offers positive expected value. We acknowledge uncertainty from lack of explicit injury or surface-matchup details and the small absolute EV, but on pure probability vs market-price comparison the away side shows value.
Key factors
- • Large experience and match-count advantage for Brengle (1066 vs 31)
- • Career win-rate disparity: Brengle (559-507) vs Abbagnato (10-21)
- • Market-implied probability (73.3%) is lower than our estimated true probability (78%)