Anastasia Gasanova vs Lanlana Tararudee
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Lanlana Tararudee at 1.60: our estimated win probability (66%) exceeds the market-implied 62.5%, yielding a small positive EV.
Highlights
- • Tararudee's far greater career experience is the primary edge
- • Current price 1.60 is above our minimum fair odds (1.515) for positive EV
Pros
- + Clear experience and volume-of-wins advantage for the away player
- + Market price offers a modest but real EV per our probability estimate
Cons
- - Limited granular match-level form and H2H data in the research increases model uncertainty
- - Single-match variance in tennis means even +EV bets can lose frequently
Details
We compare the quoted market price (Away 1.60 implied 62.5%) to our assessment based on the players' profiles and recent form in the provided research. Lanlana Tararudee has a long, established career (1066 matches, 559 wins) and broad surface experience, giving her a clear experience and match-toughness advantage. Anastasia Gasanova's profile shows a very limited sample (31 matches, 10 wins) and poor recent results, indicating lower baseline win probability. Both players have recent losses in the same event window, but the durability, match experience and higher career win volume for Tararudee lead us to judge her true chance above the market-implied 62.5%. At our estimated true probability of 66.0%, the current decimal price of 1.60 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.056 per unit). We therefore recommend the away side at the quoted market price.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap: Tararudee 1066 matches vs Gasanova 31 matches
- • Career win totals favor Tararudee (559 vs 10), indicating higher baseline quality
- • Gasanova's recent form and low overall win rate suggest underdog vulnerability