Anastasia Mozgaleva vs Ella Kordik

Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~96%, but Mozgaleva's career win rate is ~31%
• • Break-even odds for our 20% estimate are 5.00 — current 11.5 is well above that

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market implied probability and player performance data
• + High payout (11.5) creates substantial positive EV even with modest estimates for the away player

Cons

• - Very limited information on Ella Kordik in the provided research (unknown form/level)
• - High volatility — underdog outcomes are low-probability events and carry high variance despite positive EV

Details

We find clear value backing the away player, Ella Kordik. The market prices Anastasia Mozgaleva at 1.04 (implied win probability ~96.2%) and Kordik at 11.5 (~8.7%). The research show Mozgaleva has a poor career record (10-22, ~31% win rate) and recent losses on hard courts, which is inconsistent with a ~96% true win probability. Conservatively estimating Kordik's chance to win at 20% (reflecting Mozgaleva's weak historical win-rate and the absence of evidence that Mozgaleva is a dominant player), the current decimal 11.5 yields a positive expected value: EV = 0.20 * 11.5 - 1 = 1.30 (130% ROI). The market appears heavily skewed toward Mozgaleva for reasons not supported by the available performance data, creating a large discrepancy between implied and our estimated probabilities. Given the huge margin between required break-even odds (5.000) and available pricing (11.5), the away bet offers substantial value despite information gaps about Kordik.

Key factors

• • Mozgaleva's career win rate is low (10-22, ~31%), which contradicts a 96% market expectation
• • Market odds are extremely skewed (home 1.04 vs away 11.5), making even small true chances for the underdog profitable
• • Recent listed results for Mozgaleva show losses on hard courts and no sign of dominant form