Anastasia Tikhonova vs Tayisiya Morderger
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We estimate Morderger's true chance at ~49% while the market gives her ~19.8%; at 5.04 this represents substantial value, so we recommend backing the away player based on the provided data.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implies ~19.8% for the away player vs our 49% estimate
- • Required fair odds on our estimate are ~2.041; current is 5.04
Pros
- + Large gap between implied and estimated probabilities yields strong positive EV
- + Both players' data in research are near-identical, supporting a closer true match-up than the market indicates
Cons
- - Research is limited and both profiles are sparse — higher model uncertainty
- - Market might reflect unreported info (late injury, withdrawal risk) not present in the supplied sources
Details
We find clear value on Tayisiya Morderger (away) because the market heavily favors Anastasia Tikhonova at 1.176 (implied ~85.0%) while the research shows nearly identical career records and recent form for both players, suggesting a much closer true contest. Given identical win-loss records (10-21) and equivalent recent-match profiles in the provided data, we estimate the true win probability for Morderger at 49.0%. The bookmaker-implied probability for Morderger at 5.04 is only ~19.8%, so the price appears materially inflated versus our estimated true chance. Calculation: estimated_true_probability = 0.49, odds_used_for_ev = 5.04, EV = 0.49 * 5.04 - 1 = 1.4696 (≈+146.96% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal odds to break even on our estimate are 2.041, so the available 5.04 offers strong positive expected value even after accounting for market vig and the sparse data set.
Key factors
- • Provided profiles show near-identical career records and recent form for both players
- • Market price (home 1.176) implies an outsized gap not supported by the research
- • No injuries, H2H, or surface advantage reported in the supplied data to justify the market skew