Highlights

• • Home (Firman) offers +EV at current odds (EV ≈ 0.391 per unit)
• • Market heavily favors Van Emst despite smaller career sample and poorer overall record

Pros

• + Significant underpricing relative to Firman's larger career winrate and surface experience
• + Current decimal odds (3.76) well above our breakeven threshold (≈2.703)

Cons

• - Limited recent-form differentiation between the two (both have recent losses on hard)
• - Small-sample uncertainty for Van Emst and typical volatility in ITF events increases outcome variance

Details

We see a large market gap: the away price implies ~80.9% win probability while the home price implies ~26.6%. Our synthesis of the provided player profiles tilts toward value on Anastasiia Firman. Firman has a long career and a substantially larger match sample (559-507 career record) across multiple surfaces including hard, whereas Sarah Van Emst has a small sample (10-21) and losing career record. Both players show recent losses on hard courts, but Firman's experience, broader surface adaptability, and far greater career win rate suggest she is underpriced here. Using a conservative estimated true win probability for Firman of 37.0% (higher than the market-implied 26.6%), the current decimal odds of 3.76 produce a positive expected value (EV = 0.37 * 3.76 - 1 = 0.391). Given limited direct head-to-head data and volatility in ITF events, we remain cautious but conclude the home price represents a value opportunity.

Key factors

• • Firman has a much larger, more successful career sample (559-507) versus Van Emst (10-21)
• • Both players have recent losses on hard courts, but Firman's broader experience across surfaces reduces matchup volatility
• • Market strongly favors Van Emst (implied ~80.9%) — creates value if our higher probability estimate for Firman is correct