Highlights

• • Market-implied probability 64.9% vs our 68.0% estimate
• • Positive EV of ~4.8% at current price

Pros

• + Significant experience and higher career win-rate favor Firman
• + Both players have experience on relevant surfaces — no clear surface disadvantage for Firman

Cons

• - Both players show recent losses, so form is not strong
• - Langlais's small sample size can produce unpredictable upsets

Details

We find value on the home player, Anastasiia Firman, at the available price. The market-implied probability at 1.541 is 64.9% (1/1.541). Based on the research, Firman is a vastly more experienced player (1066 matches, 559-507) versus Cindy Langlais (32 matches, 10-22) and has recorded play across the same surfaces listed for both players (clay and hard). Langlais's small sample size and low career win rate imply greater volatility and a lower baseline win expectancy. Conservatively estimating Firman's true win probability at 68.0% (higher than the market-implied 64.9%) produces a positive expected value at the quoted price. We therefore recommend backing the home side only because the calculated EV is positive at the current decimal odds of 1.541.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Firman 1066 matches vs Langlais 32 matches
• • Career win-rate advantage: Firman ~52.5% vs Langlais ~31%
• • Both players have recent losses but Firman's deeper experience suggests greater baseline consistency