Anastasiia Sobolieva vs Hanne Vandewinkel

Highlights

• • Bookmaker favors Vandewinkel despite a 10-22 record in the provided data
• • Home price 2.14 requires only ~46.7% win probability to break even; our conservative estimate is 55%

Pros

• + Clear mismatch between Vandewinkel's documented form and market pricing
• + Home price (2.14) yields a healthy EV assuming modest probability edge

Cons

• - No performance data provided for Anastasiia Sobolieva increases model uncertainty
• - Small sample of provided matches and potential hidden factors (injury, surface preference) could change true probability

Details

We find clear value on the home side (Anastasiia Sobolieva) because the market is pricing Hanne Vandewinkel at an implied ~60% win probability (1/1.66) despite Vandewinkel's weak documented record (10-22 overall) and recent losses. The only provided performance data is for Vandewinkel and indicates poor outcomes on hard courts and general low win rate, so the bookmaker's favoritism toward Vandewinkel looks inconsistent with the available evidence. Conservatively estimating Sobolieva's true win probability at 55% produces positive expected value at the current home price of 2.14. Given the incomplete data (no public stats for Sobolieva in the research), we remain conservative in our probability estimate but still conclude the home price is mispriced and offers value.

Key factors

• • Vandewinkel documented career record is poor (10-22), implying lower true win probability than the market-priced favorite
• • Recent listed matches for Vandewinkel show losses, suggesting form is negative coming into this match
• • Market implies Vandewinkel ~60% which appears inconsistent with the provided performance data, creating a disparity in implied vs estimated probability