Anastasiya Barzakova vs Anna Lena Ebster

Highlights

• • Market implies ≈98% for away at 1.02 despite an overall 32% career win rate for Ebster
• • At our conservative 65% estimate for the home player, the 14.0 price yields a very large positive EV

Pros

• + Huge mismatch between market-implied probability and documented player performance
• + Current home price (14.0) is far above the minimum required odds to be profitable given our probability estimate

Cons

• - Very limited data provided — no direct information on the home player or match conditions
• - High model uncertainty: large market mispricings can reflect unobserved facts (injury, walkover, matchup, etc.) not present in the provided sources

Details

We identify clear value on the home player given the market's extreme pricing for Anna Lena Ebster (away). Ebster's provided career record is 10-21 (≈32% win rate across 31 matches) with recent losses in early September 2025, which does not support an implied market probability of ~98% (away at 1.02). Conservatively estimating Ebster's true win probability materially below the market (we estimate the away win chance at ~35%), we assign the home player a win probability of 0.65. At the quoted home price of 14.0 this produces a very large positive edge (EV = 0.65 * 14.0 - 1 = 8.10). The discrepancy is driven by the market implying near-certainty on a player whose documented results show a sub-50% career win rate and recent losses; given only the supplied data, backing the long-priced home side offers value. We note high uncertainty because only limited player data is available and we lack any direct information on the home player, venue specifics, or injuries.

Key factors

• • Anna Lena Ebster career record 10-21 (≈32% win rate)
• • Recent form shows losses in early September 2025
• • Market heavily favors Ebster (away 1.02) implying ≈98% probability which conflicts with her documented results