Highlights

• • Market favors Vandewinkel despite a weak 10-22 season record
• • Home at 2.00 exceeds our fair odds threshold of 1.835

Pros

• + Current price (2.00) beats our min-required odds (1.835) for positive EV
• + Vandewinkel's recent form and losses on hard lower her true win probability

Cons

• - No performance, ranking, or injury data provided for Sobolieva to strengthen the projection
• - Limited sample and lack of H2H or surface confirmation raise uncertainty

Details

The market makes Hanne Vandewinkel the favorite at 1.813 (implied ~55.2%), but the only research provided shows Vandewinkel with a poor 10-22 season record and recent straight losses on hard courts, indicating form risk. No performance data for Anastasiya Sobolieva was provided, so we conservatively assign a slight edge to Sobolieva (home) based on Vandewinkel's fragility. We estimate Sobolieva's true win probability at 54.5%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.835; the available price of 2.00 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.545 * 2.00 - 1 = 0.09 (9% ROI). Given the limited dataset and absence of H2H or injury info for Sobolieva, this is a moderate-confidence value play rather than a certainty.

Key factors

• • Vandewinkel's season record 10-22 indicates ongoing struggles
• • Recent consecutive losses on hard courts suggest form decline
• • No data provided for Sobolieva increases uncertainty but supports conservative edge assignment