Anastasiya Sobolieva vs Hanne Vandewinkel

Highlights

• • Sobolieva at 2.06 implies ~48.5% but we estimate ~52.5%
• • Edge at current price yields ~8.15% ROI on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the quoted market price
• + Opponent's documented recent losses and poor career win-rate support an underpriced home

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Sobolieva in the supplied research increases uncertainty
• - Estimates rely heavily on absence of negative info and on Vandewinkel's struggles; outcomes could vary

Details

We compare the market prices (Sobolieva 2.06, Vandewinkel 1.781) to our read of likely win chances based solely on the available research. The only concrete player data provided is Vandewinkel's profile showing a 10-22 career record and clear recent weakness (multiple recent losses on hard courts). That record and form suggest the market may be over-rewarding Vandewinkel as the favorite at 1.781 (implied ~56.1%). We have no negative data on Sobolieva in the supplied research; absent evidence that Sobolieva is a clear inferior, we assign her a materially higher true chance than the market-implied 48.5% at 2.06. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 52.5% for Sobolieva produces a positive edge versus the available 2.06 price, giving an expected ROI of ~+0.0815 per unit staked. We therefore recommend betting the home player only because EV>0 at the quoted 2.06; if prices move down toward 1.905 or lower, value would evaporate.

Key factors

• • Vandewinkel's poor recent form and 10-22 overall record lowers her true win probability versus market
• • Market makes Vandewinkel the favorite at 1.781 (implied ~56.1%), which looks high given available form data
• • No negative information provided on Sobolieva, so assigning her a modest edge (52.5%) yields value at 2.06