Highlights

• • Both players have similar season records and surface profiles
• • Soboleva at 2.30 implies more value than the market's favorite price suggests

Pros

• + Price (2.30) sits above our fair-value threshold (min required 2.174)
• + Home designation gives Soboleva a modest edge in an otherwise level matchup

Cons

• - Both players show weak recent form, increasing upset variance
• - Edge is small; outcome remains volatile given similar skill/records

Details

We view the listed price (Soboleva 2.30, Vandewinkel 1.60) as favouring Vandewinkel more than the on-paper data justifies. Both players show nearly identical career records this season (roughly 10-21/22), comparable surface experience (clay and hard) and similarly poor recent form, so the market's implied 62.5% for Vandewinkel looks overstated. Soboleva benefits from the home designation (small advantage) and there is no clear head-to-head or injury info to swing the edge to Vandewinkel. We therefore estimate Soboleva's true win probability at ~46%, which makes the 2.30 price slightly positive EV versus the market-implied ~43.5%. At our estimate the bet yields a small but real edge.

Key factors

• • Near-identical win-loss records and surface histories for both players
• • Both players in poor recent form, reducing differentiation from form alone
• • Home designation for Soboleva provides a small additional edge
• • Market price overestimates Vandewinkel's chance given available data