Anastasiya Zaparyniuk vs Emira Diabate

Highlights

• • Favorite (home) implied probability 80.6% vs our estimate 78.0% → negative EV
• • Away price (3.75) requires >26.67% true win probability to be profitable — unlikely under conservative assumptions

Pros

• + Conservative, data-sparse approach reduces risk of overbetting on assumed edges
• + Clear break-even threshold provided (min_required_decimal_odds) for future price movement

Cons

• - If unknowns (injury, withdrawal, extreme form swing) favor the favorite more than assumed, we may be overly conservative
• - Small edges could exist but are within margin of error given lack of data

Details

We compare the bookmaker prices to a conservative estimate of true win probability given the absence of form, surface, injury, and H2H data. The market gives Anastasiya Zaparyniuk (home) 1.24 (implied ~80.6%) and Emira Diabate (away) 3.75 (implied ~26.7%). With no additional information, we adopt a cautious view that the favorite’s true win probability is slightly lower than the market-implied figure to allow for bookmaker margin and unknowns; we estimate Zaparyniuk at 78.0% to reflect a conservative edge against overconfidence. At that estimate EV for the home line is negative (EV = 0.78 * 1.24 - 1 ≈ -0.033), so there is no value on the favorite. The away side would require a true probability ≥ 26.667% to break even at 3.75; given the heavy favorite pricing and lack of contrary evidence, we estimate Diabate’s true win probability well below that threshold, so the away price offers no value either. Because neither side shows positive expected value at the provided prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external form/surface/injury/H2H data available — we apply conservative assumptions
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.24) is ~80.6%; our conservative estimate is 78.0%
• • At our estimate, neither side offers positive EV at the quoted prices