Highlights

• • Todoni’s long career and greater win volume imply higher reliability
• • Current odds of 1.157 offer a positive expected value at our estimated win probability

Pros

• + Significant career and experience gap in favor of Todoni
• + Market price slightly underestimates Todoni's win chance per our model

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for both players, introducing short-term uncertainty
• - EV margin is modest, so variance and small unknown factors (fitness, conditions) could erase value

Details

We see a large experience and career-volume gap: Anca Alexia Todoni has an extensive career record (559-507 across many surfaces) while Dalila Spiteri is early in her career with a 10-21 record over ~31 matches. Both profiles show recent losses, but the sample-size and durability advantage strongly favor Todoni. The market prices Todoni at 1.157 (implied ~86.4%). Given the disparity in career wins, match exposure, and presumed consistency across surfaces, we estimate Todoni's true chance materially above the market-implied probability. Using a conservative true probability of 90%, the current decimal price of 1.157 yields a positive expected value. We also note a modest market overround, but it does not eliminate value at the quoted price. There is some risk from Todoni's recent form and any unknown short-term fitness issues, so we keep our probability conservative rather than extreme.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match-volume advantage for Todoni (559 career wins vs 10 for Spiteri)
• • Spiteri has limited match history (31 matches) and a 10-21 record, indicating lower baseline win expectation
• • Current market price for Todoni (1.157) implies ~86.4%; we assess true probability higher (~90%) giving positive EV