Anca Alexia Todoni vs Lola Radivojevic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home player Anca Alexia Todoni at 1.515 — our estimated win probability (70%) implies positive EV versus the market-implied ~66%.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability (66%) is below our fair estimate (70%)
- • Todoni's experience and higher career win-rate underpin the edge
Pros
- + Clear experience and win-rate advantage
- + Required fair odds (1.429) are shorter than current market (1.515)
Cons
- - Both players show recent inconsistent results, adding match volatility
- - Radivojevic's youth and limited data create some unpredictability
Details
We see clear value backing Anca Alexia Todoni. The market gives Todoni decimal 1.515 (implied win probability ~66.0%). Our assessment, based on a large experience and superior career win-rate (559-507, ~52.4%) versus Lola Radivojevic's limited sample and weaker record (10-21, ~32.3%), plus likely surface familiarity at a WTA 125k event, pushes our estimated true probability to ~70%. That probability requires minimum fair odds of 1.429; the current price of 1.515 therefore offers positive expected value. Radivojevic's small sample size and poor win ratio increase variance but do not offset Todoni's clear edge in experience and likely match control. We used the quoted current moneyline (1.515) to calculate EV.
Key factors
- • Large experience and deeper match history in favor of Todoni
- • Career win-rate gap: Todoni ~52% vs Radivojevic ~32%
- • Limited sample and recent poor form for Radivojevic increases upset variance