Highlights

• • Market price implies ~60% chance for home; we estimate ~66%
• • Eunhye Lee's recent form and 10-21 record weigh heavily against her chances

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current odds (EV ≈ 0.097 per unit staked)
• + Market may be underestimating impact of Lee's poor recent form

Cons

• - Limited supplied information on Anchisa Chanta increases model risk
• - No head-to-head or injury data in the provided research; increased uncertainty remains

Details

We estimate Anchisa Chanta's true win probability above the market-implied probability. The market price of 1.662 implies a win probability of ~60.2%; given Eunhye Lee's documented 10-21 record and consistently poor recent results, particularly on hard/court surfaces listed in her profile, we assign a higher true probability to the home player (66%). That produces positive expected value at the current moneyline. We note limited public data on Anchisa in the supplied research and the lack of H2H or injury detail increases uncertainty, but the gap between our estimate and market odds is sufficient to recommend a back of the home player at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1/1.662 ≈ 60.2%) vs our higher estimated win chance (66%)
• • Eunhye Lee's poor overall record (10-21) and weak recent form in supplied match history
• • Surface experience listed for Lee (clay, hard) but recent results on those surfaces are unfavorable, increasing likelihood of underperformance