Highlights

• • Yeon favored at 1.333 but recent record 10-21 weakens that justification
• • Anchisa priced 3.07 would need odds ≥3.333 to be +EV under our conservative estimate

Pros

• + We err on the side of caution given incomplete data — avoiding likely losing edge
• + Clear numeric threshold provided for when Anchisa would become +EV (≥3.333)

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to absence of Anchisa performance data in the provided research
• - If additional positive info on Anchisa exists off-record, we may be missing a true value opportunity

Details

We see a heavy market lean to Yeon Woo Ku at 1.333 (implied ~75% chance) while the home underdog Anchisa Chanta is priced at 3.07 (implied ~32.6%). The only concrete recent data provided is for Yeon Woo Ku showing a 10-21 career record with multiple recent losses and limited high-quality results, which suggests her true edge is likely lower than the market-implied 75%. However, we have no validated performance data for Anchisa Chanta in the provided research, so we must be conservative. Assigning a cautious estimated true win probability of 30% for Anchisa (reflecting uncertainty and Yeon’s recognized status as favorite but accounting for her poor recent results), the minimum fair odds to make Anchisa +EV would be 3.333. At the current home price 3.07 our estimated EV is negative (-0.079 per unit). Given the lack of reliable data on Anchisa and the short price on Yeon, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Provided data shows Yeon Woo Ku has a 10-21 record and several recent losses — form concern
• • Market strongly favors Yeon (1.333), implying ~75% win chance which appears overstated vs her documented form
• • No performance or injury data for Anchisa Chanta in the research, creating high uncertainty about true probabilities