Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~65.7% vs our estimate 70%
• • Wang's 10-21 record and recent losses support favoring the home player

Pros

• + Current price (1.521) offers a measurable edge vs our probability model
• + Opponent shows weak recent form and low career win rate

Cons

• - Limited available research on Anchisa Chanta specifically increases model uncertainty
• - Tennis matches can be volatile; single-match variance can negate positive EV in the short term

Details

We estimate Anchisa Chanta is slightly undervalued by the market relative to Yuhan Wang's form. The book market price of 1.521 implies a win probability of ~65.7%, while our model, driven primarily by Wang's weak 10-21 career record and poor recent results on ITF-level events, places Anchisa's true win probability at 70%. That difference (70% vs implied 65.7%) produces positive expected value at the current home price. We are conservative in our projection because the available research is limited to Wang's profile only, but Wang's sub-33% career win rate and recent losses on clay and hard leave us comfortable assigning a material edge to Anchisa. Comparing probabilities: required fair decimal odds for our 70% estimate is 1.429; the current market 1.521 exceeds that threshold, giving EV = 0.7 * 1.521 - 1 = +0.0647 (≈+6.5% ROI).

Key factors

• • Yuhan Wang's poor overall record (10-21) and recent string of losses
• • Wang's recent results include losses on both clay and hard, indicating limited surface advantage
• • Market price (1.521) implies lower win probability than our conservative estimate for the home player