Andjela Lazarevic vs Alexandra Shubladze

Highlights

• • Profiles and recent results provided show no clear edge to the favorite
• • Home at 5.6 yields very large calculated EV under a conservative 48% win probability

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current home price if our probability estimate is reasonable
• + No provided evidence (injury, superior form, surface edge) that would justify the heavy favourite

Cons

• - Small sample and limited data increase uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Market may have additional information not present in the supplied research (e.g., last-minute withdrawal concerns or inside information)

Details

We view the market price (Away 1.12 / Home 5.6) as overstating a clear advantage for Alexandra Shubladze. The available profiles show effectively identical career spans, identical overall records (10-21), and similar recent form on comparable surfaces; there is no material evidence in the provided research to justify an ~89% implied win probability for the away player. Given the lack of separating data (no injuries, no H2H, same surfaces and similar recent results), a near-even true-chance is more plausible. We conservatively estimate Andjela Lazarevic's true win probability at 48%; at the quoted home price of 5.6 this implies a large positive expected value (EV = 0.48*5.6 - 1 = 1.688). The away price 1.12 offers no value versus our estimate (implied probability 89% vs our ~52%). Therefore we recommend backing the home underdog because the market price materially exceeds the minimum fair odds implied by our estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show effectively identical records (10-21) and career span in the provided data
• • No injury or clear form advantage for the away player in the supplied research
• • Market implies an implausibly high favoritism for the away player (1.12) given available evidence