Highlights

• • Bookmaker implied probability for the favorite (57.5%) exceeds our estimate (53%)
• • Required decimal odds for value (≈1.887) are materially above the offered 1.741

Pros

• + Slight home/local familiarity could give Andjela a small edge
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing surface mismatch risk

Cons

• - Market margin and short favorite price remove expected value
• - Recent form for both players shows more losses than wins—outcome uncertainty is high

Details

We compared the bookmaker prices to our assessment of the players. The market prices (Home 1.741 => implied 57.45%, Away 1.962 => implied 50.97%) include a noticeable vig and slightly favor the home player. Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form with more losses than wins and no clear injury or matchup edge reported. We estimate a small home advantage but not large enough to justify the current favorite price: our estimated true probability for Andjela Lazarevic is 53.0% (we judge her slightly likelier given potential local familiarity and similar surface experience). At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.887, which is noticeably higher than the offered 1.741, producing a negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the current favorite price; no side offers positive EV at the posted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have near-identical season records (10-21) and similar surface experience
• • Market priced a clear favorite but implied probability (57.5%) exceeds our true estimate (53%)
• • No reported injuries or decisive head‑to‑head/seasonal edge in the provided data; sample size is small