Highlights

• • Svajda estimated win probability ~62%; fair odds ~1.613
• • Current market odds (1.53) produce a small negative EV (~-0.051)

Pros

• + Svajda shows stronger overall win rate and recent hard-court form
• + Market heavily favors Svajda, reflecting observed performance differentials

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and small sample sizes create higher uncertainty
• - Current prices leave no positive EV for either side

Details

We view Trevor Svajda as the clear favorite based on a stronger career win rate (24-11 = ~69% vs Ilagan 37-33 = ~53%) and recent form on hard courts. Normalizing for venue (hard surface for both) and the limited head-to-head data, we estimate Svajda's true win probability at ~62%. At the current market price of 1.53 (implied ~65.4%), the price is slightly worse than fair once we account for our probability and the bookmaker margin, producing a small negative EV. The away price would need to rise to about 1.613 or higher for a positive expected value by our view; the home underdog (Ilagan) would need materially higher odds than the quoted 2.45 to represent value. Given the available information and the current odds, we do not recommend taking either side.

Key factors

• • Both players primarily play on hard courts; surface influences are neutral
• • Svajda has a substantially better win-loss rate (24-11) and more consistent recent results
• • Small sample sizes and lack of H2H data increase uncertainty; market margin removes the small edge