Highlights

• • Market implies Home win ~70.4% (1.42) despite Colombo's weak recent results
• • At our 45% estimate for the away, the 2.70 price yields ~21.5% ROI (EV = +0.215)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at the quoted away price
• + Market appears to overprice the home favorite given documented poor form

Cons

• - Very limited data on Pablo Aunion in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Small-sample variability and potential surface/venue factors not fully documented could swing outcomes

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 1.42 -> implied 70.4%, Away 2.70 -> implied 37.0%) to our read of the available form data. Andrea Colombo's recent record is weak (career 2-6 with multiple recent losses) and his form profile suggests vulnerability rather than the ~70% win probability the market assigns. There is little public data on Pablo Aunion in the provided research, which increases uncertainty but also creates the possibility that the market is over-weighting home advantage and Colombo's perceived edge. Conservatively we estimate Pablo Aunion's true win probability at 45% (and Colombo at 55%); at decimal 2.70 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.70 - 1 = +0.215). In contrast, backing Colombo at 1.42 would be negative EV under our estimate. Given the thin sample on Colombo and absence of evidence for Aunion, we remain cautious but find clear value on the away line at standard available prices.

Key factors

• • Andrea Colombo's recent form is poor (career 2-6; multiple recent losses), reducing his expected win chance
• • Market implies a strong favorite (home 1.42 -> ~70%), which we judge overstated given Colombo's form
• • Lack of provided data for Pablo Aunion increases uncertainty but also suggests the market may be underestimating him