Andrea Fiorentini vs Jeremy Gschwendtner
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Jeremy Gschwendtner at 2.32 — our model gives him a ~46% win chance vs market-implied ~43%, producing a ~6.7% expected return.
Highlights
- • Market favorite Fiorentini is priced at ~64.5% implied probability.
- • Our fair price for Gschwendtner is ~2.174; current 2.32 offers positive EV.
Pros
- + Underdog price (2.32) exceeds our break-even threshold (2.174).
- + Both players' form and surface history are similar, decreasing the favorite's edge.
Cons
- - Small data sample and limited recent match detail increase uncertainty.
- - Both players enter on losing runs; variance risk is high in ITF-level matches.
Details
We view Jeremy Gschwendtner (away) as the value side. The market heavily favors Andrea Fiorentini at 1.552 (implied ~64.5%) which overstates the gap given both players' similar Challenger/ITF-level records and recent form. Fiorentini is 16-24 (40 matches) while Gschwendtner is 13-18 (31 matches); recent results show both on losing runs on clay, and Fiorentini recently lost at Kursumlijska Banja (the same event), reducing a home/venue edge. We estimate Jeremy's true win probability at 46.0%, which implies fair odds of ~2.174. The current away price of 2.32 exceeds that threshold, producing a positive expected value: EV = 0.46 * 2.32 - 1 = ~0.0672 (6.7% ROI). Given the small sample sizes, lack of clear injury news, and surface parity, backing the underdog at 2.32 offers a modest edge versus the market-implied probabilities.
Key factors
- • Both players have comparable clay experience and poor recent form
- • Fiorentini lost recently at the same venue, limiting home advantage
- • Market overprices the home favorite (implied ~64.5%), creating value on the away side