Andrea Pellegrino vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on Andrea Pellegrino at 1.459 given his stronger season record and comparable grass experience; estimated win probability 70% implies a ~2.1% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Pellegrino’s superior season record and form justify a higher win probability
- • Market price offers a small positive edge (EV ≈ 2.1%) on the home moneyline
Pros
- + Clear season-record advantage and consistent results across surfaces
- + Market odds slightly favorable relative to our estimated probability
Cons
- - Edge is small — modest EV only, vulnerable to variance
- - No H2H or detailed grass-specific recent form data in the provided research
Details
We view Andrea Pellegrino as the stronger player based on the season records in the provided data (41-25 vs 29-37) and more consistent results across surfaces including grass. Both players have experience on grass, but Pellegrino's better win rate and recent progress at the Szczecin event imply a higher true win probability than the market is currently pricing. The book market offers Pellegrino at 1.459 (decimal), which is slightly higher than our fair-price threshold (1.429) for our estimated probability, producing a small positive edge. There are no injury flags in the provided material and no H2H data to contradict the form gap, so we recommend backing Pellegrino at current markets where available.
Key factors
- • Season win-loss gap: Pellegrino 41-25 vs Blancaneaux 29-37
- • Both have grass experience, but Pellegrino shows more consistent results across surfaces
- • Current market price (1.459) slightly exceeds our fair-price threshold (1.429), yielding small positive EV