Highlights

• • Market implies ~63.7% for Andrea Pellegrino (1.57 decimal)
• • Our conservative estimate of 60% yields EV = -0.058 at current odds

Pros

• + Home player is favored by the market, indicating perceived advantage
• + Difference between market and our estimate is small (low edge), limiting downside if one still wagers

Cons

• - No independent research (form, surface, injuries, H2H) — high uncertainty
• - Current price is slightly too short to offer positive EV based on conservative assumptions

Details

We conservatively estimate Andrea Pellegrino's true win probability at 60% based on home designation and absence of reliable research. The market price (home 1.57) implies a win probability of ~63.7%, which is slightly shorter than our estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. Given the lack of specific form, surface, injury or H2H data, we avoid recommending a side unless a clearer pricing edge appears. We used the provided decimal odds (1.57) to calculate EV.

Key factors

• • No external research available — high uncertainty
• • Market-implied probability (1.57) is ~63.7%, slightly above our 60% estimate
• • Home designation considered but not overweighted without form/injury/H2H data