Andrea Pellegrino vs Rudolf Molleker
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on either side at current prices: Pellegrino is priced too short for our 60% estimate and Molleker’s 2.45 price is marginally short for our 40% estimate.
Highlights
- • Pellegrino estimated win probability: 60% -> required fair odds ≥ 1.667
- • Market odds produce negative EV for both sides (home EV ≈ -0.10, away EV ≈ -0.02)
Pros
- + Pellegrino’s experience and surface versatility justify a higher true win probability than raw odds imply
- + Molleker’s price (2.45) is close to value threshold and would be attractive with any reason to upgrade his win probability
Cons
- - Recent form for both players is mixed and does not clearly support a probability gap large enough to overcome the market margin
- - Bookmaker margin and favorite-short pricing remove the edge at widely-available prices
Details
We estimate Andrea Pellegrino is the stronger probability here based on a longer career record (290-273) and greater surface versatility, and both players show mixed recent form on clay. Using a conservative true win probability of 60% (Pellegrino) vs 40% (Molleker) — informed by career win rates and experience gap — the market price for Pellegrino at 1.50 (implied 66.7%) is too short to offer value (EV = 0.60*1.50 - 1 = -0.10). The away price of 2.45 would require Molleker to be >40.8% likely to win to be profitable; our Molleker estimate (40%) produces a small negative EV (0.40*2.45 - 1 = -0.02). With both sides showing negative expected value against our modeled probabilities, we decline to back either side.
Key factors
- • Pellegrino has substantially more match experience and a marginally better career win rate
- • Both players show mixed recent form on clay with no clear momentum advantage
- • Current market prices favor Pellegrino strongly (1.50) and do not leave value relative to our 60% estimate