Andrea Picchione vs Jay Clarke
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on Jay Clarke at 1.503 because his grass experience and stronger career record justify a ~68% win probability versus the market's ~66.5%. The edge is modest (≈2.2% ROI) and comes with uncertainty.
Highlights
- • Market price 1.503 implies 66.5% chance; our estimate 68.0% -> small value
- • Picchione appears to have limited/no grass background, favoring Clarke
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely available price (EV ≈ 0.022)
- + Clear surface and career-quality edge to Clarke
Cons
- - Edge is small — sensitive to model error or rapid form swings
- - Recent form for both players is mixed; uncertainty around adaptation to current conditions
Details
We estimate Jay Clarke is the favorite on grass given his stronger overall record (54-26 vs Picchione 43-30) and explicit grass experience in his profile, while Picchione's recorded surfaces are hard and clay with little-to-no grass history. The market price of 1.503 implies a 66.5% win probability; our assessed true probability for Clarke is 68.0% based on surface matchup, career winning percentages, and relative experience, which produces positive edge. At our probability the minimum fair decimal price is 1.471; the available 1.503 therefore offers small but real value (EV = 0.022 per unit). Uncertainties that temper the upside: both players have mixed recent results and Picchione could adapt quickly to grass, so this is a modest edge rather than a large discrepancy.
Key factors
- • Clarke has documented grass experience while Picchione's profile lists hard/clay only
- • Clarke's superior career win-rate (54-26) suggests higher baseline quality
- • Market-implied probability (66.5%) is slightly below our estimated 68% true chance