Highlights

• • Quoted prices imply heavy favouritism to Sveva Pieroni (1.25).
• • At our conservative 26% estimate, the home price of 3.65 has negative EV (-0.051).

Pros

• + Available home price (3.65) is not far from a fair upset line (3.846) — small informational edges could change this.
• + If additional positive information for the underdog appears (injury to favorite, bad conditions), value could emerge.

Cons

• - No independent data to justify moving away from market-implied probabilities.
• - Required probability for favourite to be +EV (>80%) is very high and unsupported.

Details

We have no independent match data (form, H2H, surface, injuries) and only the quoted moneyline prices: Andrea Roots (home) 3.65 and Sveva Pieroni (away) 1.25. The market strongly favors the away player; the raw implied probabilities are ~27.4% (home) and 80.0% (away), which normalise to roughly 25.5% / 74.5% after removing the bookmaker margin (~7.4% vig). Using a conservative estimate given the lack of information, we assign Andrea Roots a 26.0% chance to win. At that probability the fair decimal odds would be 3.846, which is slightly higher than the available 3.65 — therefore the current home price does not offer positive expected value. For the favourite (away) to be profitable at 1.25 the true win probability would need to exceed 80.0%, which is implausible without additional confirmation. Given uncertainty and the vig, neither side shows positive EV at the quoted market prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent match info available (form, injuries, surface, H2H)
• • Market heavily favours away at 1.25; implied vig ~7.4% reduces value
• • Underdog needs ≥27.4% true win chance to be profitable vs 3.65