Highlights

• • Normalized market favours the away player (~53.8%)
• • Neither side meets the minimum required odds for positive EV at current prices

Pros

• + Market is internally consistent and points to a modest away favorite
• + Conservative probability estimate keeps us from chasing small edges with limited information

Cons

• - No player-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - Small margins — market prices are close to our estimates, so small info changes could flip EV

Details

We only have the posted decimals (Home 2.02, Away 1.73) and no additional player/surface/form data, so we apply a conservative probability assessment and compare to market-implied probabilities. Market raw implied probabilities are 1/2.02 = 49.505% (home) and 1/1.73 = 57.803% (away); the sum (overround) is 107.308%, which normalizes to ~46.16% home / ~53.84% away. Given the lack of extra information, we conservatively estimate Ivan (away) at a 54.0% true win probability (0.54) — effectively in line with the normalized market view but rounding slightly in the player’s favor. At that probability the minimum fair decimal odds for value would be 1/0.54 = 1.852. The current away price (1.73) is shorter than 1.852, so the expected value is negative: EV = 0.54 * 1.73 - 1 = -0.066 (approx -6.6% ROI). The home side (Andrea) would require a minimum decimal odds of 1/0.46 = 2.174 for value under a 46% win estimate; current home odds (2.02) are also shorter than that requirement. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities (normalized) ~54% away / ~46% home after removing overround
• • Conservative estimated true probability for away set at 54% due to lack of external data
• • Current away odds (1.73) are shorter than the min required 1.852 for positive EV