Highlights

• • Normalized market estimate: Away ~53.05%, Home ~46.95%
• • Required fair odds for the Away are ~1.885; current price 1.75 is too short

Pros

• + Approach is conservative and market-based given lack of external information
• + We avoid gambling on thin edges where bookmaker margin and uncertainty dominate

Cons

• - No player-specific data available — true edge could exist but is unknowable here
• - Small differences in true probability would change the EV sign; uncertainty is high

Details

We used a conservative, market-based approach because no external data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) were available. We removed the bookmaker overround by normalizing the implied probabilities from the provided decimals (Home 1.98, Away 1.75), producing an estimated true probability for the market-favored Away of ~53.05%. At that probability the expected ROI on the current Away price (1.75) is negative, and the Home side is also negative at its quoted price. Because neither side offers positive expected value at the listed prices, we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • No external data available (form, surface, injuries, H2H) — we defaulted to market-based estimates
• • Bookmaker overround present (~7.6%); probabilities were normalized before estimating true win chance
• • Both sides produce negative EV at the quoted decimals (no value available)