Highlights

• • Market implies Grabher ~74.3% but we estimate ~70% — negative EV on the favorite
• • Andrea's implied odds (~30.8%) are roughly aligned with our estimate (~30%) and also offer no positive EV

Pros

• + Grabher is the clear experience and quality favorite — market price is consistent with that view
• + Andrea's price is large enough to be attractive only if our model substantially undervalues her

Cons

• - Neither side offers positive expected value at the current market prices
• - Limited specific surface or recent-head-to-head detail in the research reduces opportunity for identified edges

Details

We find no positive value at the quoted prices. The market prices imply Julia Grabher has ~74.3% chance (1/1.347) and Andrea Lazaro Garcia ~30.8% (1/3.25). Our assessment, based on career records, experience gap and recent form, places Grabher at about a 70.0% win probability (Andrea ~30.0%). At those estimates Grabher's EV = 0.70*1.347 - 1 = -0.057 (negative) and Andrea's EV = 0.30*3.25 - 1 = -0.025 (also negative). Because both sides are priced without positive expected value versus our model, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Large experience and career-win gap in favor of Julia Grabher (much greater match volume and higher career win rate)
• • Andrea Lazaro Garcia has limited recent success (10-21 season record) and is the underdog on implied probabilities
• • Market prices slightly overvalue Grabher relative to our 70% estimate, removing positive EV for both sides