Highlights

• • Market implies ~62.1% for Perego (1.61); our estimate ~61.0%
• • No clear value at current prices — recommended action: no bet

Pros

• + Perego's superior record and greater match sample favor him
• + Both players' recent matches were on comparable surfaces, reducing surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and inconsistent recent form increase outcome variance
• - Market price squeezes potential edge — implied probability slightly exceeds our estimate

Details

We compared the market prices (Andrea Meduri 2.23, Giulio Perego 1.61) to our evaluation. Perego has the clearer edge in career record and experience (11-16 vs Meduri 5-12) and both players have recent matches on clay/hard, so surface does not materially swing the expected outcome. The market implies Perego has ~62.1% (1/1.61) chance; after accounting for small-sample variability, inconsistent recent form for both, and no injury or H2H information, we estimate Perego's true win probability at ~61.0%. That is slightly below the implied probability, producing a small negative expected value at the quoted 1.61. Because expected value is not positive at available prices, we do not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • Giulio Perego has the stronger career record and greater match experience
• • Both players have experience on clay and hard; no clear surface advantage
• • Market-implied probability for Perego (~62.1%) is slightly above our estimate (~61%), yielding negative EV