Highlights

• • Pellegrino: seasoned player with Challenger-level clay wins and broad surface experience
• • Lange: negligible pro history (2 matches) and no recent wins at this level

Pros

• + Strong experience and recent clay form favor Pellegrino
• + Low informational uncertainty on Pellegrino relative to Lange

Cons

• - No market odds provided, so we cannot verify or lock in value now
• - Small-sample variance for Lange means upsets remain possible despite his lack of results

Details

We estimate Andrea Pellegrino is the clear favorite based on experience and surface history: extensive career match play across surfaces including clay and recent Challenger-level wins on clay, while Mateusz Lange has an extremely limited pro record (two recorded matches) and no demonstrated wins at this level. Lange's sample size and recent form (0-1) make him a longshot in our view. Because no market moneyline/decimal odds are provided for either side, we cannot calculate or confirm positive expected value at current prices. Based on our modelled win probability for Pellegrino (0.82), the minimum decimal price required for a positive EV is 1.220; any available market price must exceed that to be a value bet. We therefore recommend no bet until an available market price is posted that offers Pellegrino >1.220 (or Lange at a price implying a probability lower than our assessed chance for an upset).

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Pellegrino has extensive tour-level and Challenger experience while Lange has only two recorded pro matches
• • Surface advantage: Pellegrino has history and recent positive results on clay; match is on clay
• • Small sample/uncertainty on Lange: very limited data increases volatility and forecasting risk