Highlights

• • Market-implied probability (62.0%) exceeds our conservative estimate (58.0%)
• • Backing the favorite at 1.613 yields a negative expected value (-6.4% ROI)

Pros

• + Favorite price reflects market confidence, so if additional positive info appears it could be justified
• + Surface information (grass) is known and could be factored in if player surface data were available

Cons

• - Insufficient player-specific information (form, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - Current odds do not offer a margin of safety versus our conservative probability estimate

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probability for Andrea Pellegrino (1 / 1.613 = 62.0%) to our conservative estimated true win probability of 58.0%. Given only surface information (grass) and no available injury, form, or H2H details in the research, we prefer to apply a margin for uncertainty and reduce the market's implied edge. At our estimate the expected value of backing the favorite at 1.613 is negative (EV = 0.58 * 1.613 - 1 = -0.0645), so there is no profitable value to recommend at current prices.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for home is ~62.0% while our view is lower (58.0%)
• • Only surface (grass) is provided; no verifiable form, injury, or H2H details to tilt probability
• • Conservative margin applied for unknowns reduces confidence in market price