Andrej Radojicic vs Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini

Highlights

• • Home implied break-even probability at 8.0 is 12.5%
• • Our conservative estimate of home win chance is ~9%, giving a negative EV at current price

Pros

• + If the home player somehow has hidden advantages, the payout at 8.0 would be large
• + Clear threshold identified: need >=11.111 decimal odds to make this a value play

Cons

• - No research data to support upgrading the home-win probability above the break-even level
• - Away price requires an unrealistic >93% true probability to be +EV

Details

We have no external research available and must be conservative. Market prices (Away 1.07, Home 8.0) imply the away player is an overwhelming favorite; converting market odds yields implied probabilities of ~93.5% (away) and ~12.5% (home). Given the lack of form, injury, surface or H2H data, we apply a conservative subjective estimate that the home player’s true win probability is roughly 9%. That estimate is below the break-even threshold for the home price (12.5% required), so the 8.0 quote does not offer value. The away price (1.07) would require an implausibly high >93.46% true win probability to be +EV, so it also offers no value. Therefore we recommend no side at current prices.

Key factors

• • No independent match data (form, injuries, surface, H2H) available — must use conservative subjective priors
• • Market strongly favors the away player (implied home chance ~12.5%)
• • Estimated true probability for the home player (9%) is below the break-even threshold, so the home price lacks value