Andreja Petrovic vs Leyton Rivera
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market overestimates Petrovic relative to our 57% win estimate, but neither side offers positive expected value at current prices — we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Book implies Petrovic ~63.3% to win at 1.581; our estimate is ~57%
- • At our estimate the home price is negative EV (-0.099), and the away price also lacks sufficient justification
Pros
- + Petrovic: slightly better recent competitiveness and comparable clay play
- + Rivera: greater match exposure which can help in tight conditions
Cons
- - Petrovic: very small sample size makes estimates unstable
- - Rivera: poor win-loss record reduces his realistic upset probability
Details
The market strongly favors Andreja Petrovic at 1.581 (implied ~63.3%) but the underlying data (small sample for Petrovic: 3-4 overall, Rivera 9-22 with more match exposure) does not support that high a probability. We estimate Petrovic's win chance closer to 57% given comparable clay experience, slight edge in recent competitiveness, and lack of any decisive form advantage for Rivera. At our estimated true probability (57%) the home price of 1.581 yields negative EV (≈ -0.099). The away price (2.27) would require a true chance ≥44.1% to be profitable; Rivera's historical win rate and recent form do not convincingly justify that probability. With both sides showing negative expected value relative to our model, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Small sample size for Petrovic (7 career matches) increases uncertainty in any probability estimate
- • Both players have clay experience; neither shows a clear surface-driven advantage
- • Rivera has more match experience but a substantially worse win-loss record, limiting his implied upset probability