Andreja Petrovic vs Robert Watzka

Highlights

• • Market implies ~90.9% for Petrovic at 1.10; our estimate is ~65%.
• • Fair decimal odds ~1.538 vs offered 1.10 — no value.

Pros

• + Petrovic has clay experience which may give a modest edge
• + Home designation and surface familiarity slightly support Petrovic

Cons

• - Very limited match data and mediocre win-loss record (3-4)
• - Provided research lacks any information on the opponent, raising model uncertainty
• - Current price (1.10) requires an implausibly high true win probability (>90%) to be profitable

Details

We find no value on the heavy home favorite at 1.10. The available research shows Andreja Petrovic has a very small sample (7 matches, 3-4 record) with mixed results on clay and limited recent form data; nothing in the record justifies a >90% implied win probability. With no information provided on Robert Watzka, the market appears to be pricing Petrovic as an overwhelmingly certain winner despite thin evidence. Using a conservative estimated true win probability of 65% for Petrovic (reflecting slight home/surface edge but acknowledging poor sample size and mixed results), the fair decimal price would be ~1.538, far above the offered 1.10, so the current price offers negative expected value.

Key factors

• • Very small sample size and limited match history for Petrovic (7 matches)
• • Mixed recent form on clay and overall 3-4 record do not support a >90% market probability
• • No verifiable information on the opponent (Watzka) in the provided research — increases uncertainty and contra-indicates accepting extreme favorite pricing