Andres Andrade vs Nerman Fatic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Nerman Fatic at 1.52 because his higher win-rate and recent form justify an estimated 70% win probability, producing a positive EV of ~6.4%.
Highlights
- • Fatic's career record is substantially better than Andrade's
- • Current odds (1.52) are above our min-required 1.429 for a 70% chance
Pros
- + Positive calculated EV at available market price
- + Clear statistical advantage in overall win-loss performance
Cons
- - Limited head-to-head and contextual match details in the research
- - Any unreported injury or in-match variability could reduce the edge
Details
We view Nerman Fatic as the clear value at current prices. His 45-15 career record is materially stronger than Andres Andrade's 32-27, and both players have primarily played Clay and Hard surfaces, so there is no obvious surface advantage for Andrade. The market prices Fatic at 1.52 (implying a breakeven win probability of ~65.8%); our estimated true win probability for Fatic is 70%. That excess probability vs. the market (70% vs. ~65.8%) produces a positive expected value: EV = 0.70 * 1.52 - 1 = 0.064 (6.4% ROI). There is limited detailed match-level or H2H data in the research, but recent form snippets favor Fatic overall. Given the sizeable gap in season win-rate and recent results, we recommend backing the away player at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Fatic's stronger overall win-loss record (45-15 vs 32-27)
- • Both players have experience on Clay and Hard — no clear surface edge for Andrade
- • Market-implied breakeven probability for Fatic is ~65.8%, below our 70% estimate
- • Recent match snippets in the research show Fatic maintaining higher performance metrics