Andres Andrade vs Damir Dzumhur

Highlights

• • Market price (5.20) offers slightly better than fair odds for our 20% estimate
• • Andrade's career win rate and surface versatility support a modest upset chance

Pros

• + Current odds exceed our break-even threshold (5.00)
• + Player has a winning career record and experience on both hard and clay

Cons

• - Edge is small (≈4% ROI) and sensitive to the probability estimate
• - We lack data on the opponent, H2H, and match surface — increases uncertainty

Details

We find a small value on the home player, Andres Andrade. The market price of 5.20 implies a win probability of ~19.23%. Using Andrade's available profile (32-27 career record across 59 matches, experience on hard and clay) and recent results that show he remains competitive at challenger level, we estimate his true win probability at 20%. That estimate is conservative relative to his career win rate but accounts for recent mixed form. At our estimate the market slightly underprices Andrade: required fair odds for break-even are 5.00 while the market pays 5.20, producing positive expected value. We note significant uncertainty because the opponent's form, ranking and head-to-head are not provided and the edge is small, so this is a higher-risk value play rather than a strong certainty.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (5.2) = 19.23%
• • Andrade career record 32-27 over 59 matches suggests baseline competitiveness
• • Recent mixed form but continued wins at challenger level indicate some upset potential