Highlights

• • Delgado's recent form and win rate suggest an edge over the market-implied probability
• • Grass-court inexperience for both players increases outcome volatility

Pros

• + Price (1.98) exceeds our fair-value threshold (1.887) for Delgado
• + Delgado's recent results are materially better than Kirchheimer's overall record

Cons

• - Very limited data on grass surface for both players — elevates uncertainty
• - Delgado's sample size is small, making probability estimate less stable

Details

We see value backing Andrew Delgado at 1.98. The market favours Strong Kirchheimer (1.781) despite a markedly worse overall win rate and poor recent results; Delgado has a stronger recent win ratio (7-4) albeit on small sample sizes. Neither player shows grass experience in the data, which raises uncertainty, but weighting recent form and win-rate differential in favor of Delgado gives us an estimated true win probability above the market-implied odds for Delgado. At an estimated probability of 53.0% the fair price is ~1.887, so the available 1.98 offers positive expected value. We caution that the sample sizes and unknown grass-court form increase variance, so this is a value-seeking play rather than a low-risk forecast.

Key factors

• • Delgado's superior recent win rate (7-4) vs Kirchheimer's poorer overall record
• • Both players listed without grass experience — increases uncertainty and variance
• • Market slightly favors Kirchheimer despite worse form, creating a pricing edge